Jai Ho Bihar! A convict brings you back to the limelight

Eleven years in jail and finally Mohammad Shahabuddin, a former or still a close aide of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad is out on bail. And the former Siwan MP wastes no time to shower tributes on his 'mentor.'

According to him, Nitish Kumar became the Bihar Chief Minister due to circumstances, a statement challenged by both Kumar's JD (U) and ally Congress. However, a section of the third segment of the Mahagathbandhan, RJD has actually endorsed Shahabuddin's view on Kumar and his acumen as a lawmaker. Hindustan Times quotes Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, a senior Lalu loyalist, "There is no denying that Lalu Prasad is the real leader. Does Nitish have the strength (to form a government)?"

What was perceived to be a strong front to stymie the Narendra Modi tide in the Bihar elections last year seems to be crumbling. When long-time foes Kumar and Prasad buried the hatchet to launch a fight against BJP, eyebrows were raised. Many doubted the viability of the alliance, keeping in mind the acrimony the two had for each other that even percolated down to a personal level.

Now thanks to Shahabuddin, a war of words, putting the alliance at stake seems a possibility. Despite Kumar's image of a no-nonsense man having controlled crime and ushered in a new era of development in Bihar in his earlier term, the current reign has been mired in one controversy after another. Be it the education scam, hooch tragedy or series of murders and an overall complete breakdown in law and order, Kumar is finding going tough. His overdrive on prohibition has only opened new doors for smuggling of liquors from neighbouring states.

The prohibition bill did meet with sharp resistances. Though Prasad's party supported the bill on the floor of the assembly, a report in The Telegraph says that the former Union Railways Minister (Prasad) termed the bill 'draconian.' If this is one part, the ambitious leader Prasad is, it's quite unlikely that he would recede to the background and let his 'friend' Kumar hog the limelight. Prasad may be banned from contesting by the Courts, but deep down, he still nurtures ambitions to rule the state.

This is exactly where Shahabuddin gets a big role to play. Though, Prasad hasn't reacted to Shahabuddin's salvo at the Bihar CM, but knowing him and his prowess over the art of political manipulations, he knows he has a lieutenant who can muddle Kumar's run towards political and administrative glory. Politically, the next few days will bear testimony to where exactly the alliance is heading. It would be interesting to note how Prasad deals with Shahabuddin. Will he desert him or use him tactically to pull the rug from under Kumar's feet?

However, only a fool will conclude Prasad will be juvenile enough to attack the CM. He would do it at his own expense and Congress won't be party to it. It will only give a fillip to a beleaguered BJP to enjoy some fresh air. But at the same time, Prasad won't be letting go of this opportunity to breathe down the neck of his foe-turned-friend.

For Kumar, the acid test begins now. Instead of going overboard on prohibition, he should focus on curbing crime and corruption and thwart every attempt to challenge his government. It's going to be a tough ask, but being the seasoned politician, Kumar is, he should be ready for the challenge.

Bihar is back in the national limelight.

Lalu's wait-and-watch policy

There is no permanent friendship or enmity in politics. Blind trust in your allies may be fatal as history proves. When foes-turned-friends Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar shared the platform to counter the Narendra Modi wave before the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls, there were many who raised eyebrows. Politics of convenience is what they termed their new-found bonhomie as. The Mahagatbandhan also involving Congress swept the Bihar polls and put a spanner in Prime Minister Modi’s ambition to make inroads into Bihar.

Fast forward to mid-2016-- The return of Jungle Raj (a coinage associated with Lalu’s tenures as chief minister) in Bihar has created ripples in the political circle. For CM, Nitish who credited himself for making Bihar a crime-free state, the recent killings of teenager Aditya Sachdeva and journalist Rajdeo Ranjan have jolted the chief minister’s image.

As Nitish is busy travelling the country to spread the message of total prohibition, breakdown of law and order in his home territory is a cause of concern for somebody who harbours Prime Ministerial ambitions. And the man, who could reap advantage out of Nitish’s discomfort, is none other than Lalu. After the landslide victory last year, Lalu had stated that he would let Nitish take care of Bihar, while he would focus on national politics.

But much to his dismay, Nitish has turned the tables on Lalu. The CM’s ambition of forging an anti- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) front eyeing the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, may have caught Lalu unawares. The liquor ban in Bihar has Lalu’s support, but even he could never gauge the pace at which Nitish would try to use it to his benefit beyond Bihar too.

Surprisingly behind both the murders, there is a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) link. Rocky Yadav arrested for shooting Aditya, is the son of Bindi Yadav, who many say built his ‘empire’ during Lalu’s regime. Rocky’s mother Manorama Devi was a Janata Dal (United) Member of the Legislative Council. Nitish is the president of JD (U). Incidentally, Bindi joined Lalu’s RJD when the latter was at the helm of affairs in Bihar. Mohammed Shahabuddin’s name has come up in the murder of Rajdeo. The jailed former RJD MP from Siwan, was recently inducted into the party’s National Executive.

Upendra Singh one of the persons detained has close links with Shahabuddin. The cops do not rule out the possibility of the former RJD lawmaker's involvement in the journalist’s murder. Siwan SP Saurabh Kumar was quoted by the media, “It seems six people have carried out the murder. Three people have been detained. We have zeroed in on the gang that could be behind the killing and the gang has links with Shahabuddin. We expect to crack the case soon.” Doesn't it say it all?

Does that imply that Lalu is slowly and steadily trying to pull the carpet beneath Nitish’s feet? There is no evidence yet against the former union Railways minister in the killings but the RJD angle cannot be overruled. At the same time the son of a JD (U) MLC apprehended for murder gives the perfect ammunition for Lalu to launch an onslaught against Nitish.

Lalu may be conceiving a scenario where Nitish finds himself on a sticky wicket. With his own state on the back foot, the Bihar chief minister’s dream of making it to 7, Race Course Road looks difficult to be fulfilled.

Looking at figures, RJD is the senior partner in the Mahagatbandhan. RJD won 80 seats in the 2015 state polls as compared to JD (U)’s 71. Congress has 27. Lalu has quite astutely foisted his son Tejashwi Yadav as the Deputy CM in the Nitish cabinet. Though debarred from contesting elections because of his conviction in the Fodder scam (he is currently out on bail), it would be quite magnanimous of Lalu to lend his helping hands to his former enemy to address the Nation on Independence Day from the Red Fort.

But for Lalu, treading the path carefully is what the doctor advises. It would not be that easy for him to put the blame on Nitish and part ways with him. The alleged RJD involvement in the murders will place him before a barrage of questions from his critics. Lalu knows he will face an uphill task to clear his party’s name.

And a crack in the alliance will give the beleaguered Bihar unit of BJP a breath of fresh air. Nevertheless, a public ire against Nitish means that it’s advantage Lalu though RJD is very much a part of the government. The seasoned politician Lalu is, he will be waiting and watching. Failure on Nitish’s part to bring the culprits to book will give Lalu a pretext to walk out on the alliance and look for a new arrangement.

In politics anything is possible.